Only Read This if You Heart Spreadsheets

Here’s the deal: I came up with a formula that will give me a better indicator of whose ranking is the closest to the actual order of contestants. I would apply for a Nobel Peace prize in mathematics but they gave it to the guy who came up with an “everyday way to cope with a wide range of numbers.” (Wait, seriously? You get the Peace Prize for that? I usually cope with a wide range of numbers by having positive attitude and allowing myself one lite beer each evening.)

The point is, you can scrap that confusing point system I posted last week. Here is the new formula that will determine our winner:
=LARGE(array(PREDICTED RANKING-ACTUAL RANKING),1)-LARGE(array(PREDICTED RANKING-ACTUAL RANKING),9)
- .25(IF,1 top three correct) - .50(IF,two top three correct) - .75(IF, three top three correct) – 1(IF, Winner predicted).

Essentially, I will look at the difference between YOUR ranking for each contestant and each contestant’s ACTUAL ranking. If I look at how far your worst two rankings are from each other, I will have a range for your prediction. This works because there will be both positive and negative numbers—you could either guess that someone is much lower or higher than they actually came out. The more people you get on the spot or within one or two places of their actual placement, the better your chances of having a small range. Until the contestant is eliminated his or her place will be “5”, which will just be used as a placeholder. Overall, the LOWER your score, the better your ranking in the bracket contest. Once we get to the top three, I will subtract up to .75 points from each person’s range depending on how many of the top three they have predicted (you get .25 points subtracted for each top three person you select). If you predict the winner, you get an additional 1 point subtracted from your score.

If you are sane, you could probably care less how I’m calculating this and are just content to check your place on the leader board each week. In fact, you’ve probably tuned me out at this point. Testing, testing? Anybody still reading this?

Anyway, based on this formula and considering our COMPOSITE ranking, this is how I predict the bracket contest will turn out.

1. Cindi
2. Janet
3. Katie
4. Dad
5. Susan (tie)
6. Kayla (tie
7. Jennie
8. Jennifer S.
9. Barb
10. Don
11. Donnie (tie)
12. Jennifer O. (tie)
13. Dan (tie)
14. Ida

Of course, it’s still anybody’s game, so don’t let this discourage you. Last year our composite predicted Siobhan would take the whole thing and she was eliminated pretty early on.